Summary
Long-term risk of death in patients with infection attended by prehospital emergency services
Affiliation of the authors
DOI
Quote
Melero Guijarro L, Martín-Rodríguez F, Álvarez Manzanares J, del Pozo Vegas C, Sanz García A, Castro Villamor MA, et al. Long-term risk of death in patients with infection attended by prehospital emergency services. Emergencias. 2024;36:088-096
Summary
Objectives.
To develop and validate a risk model for 1-year mortality based on variables available from early prehospital emergency attendance of patients with infection.
Methods.
Prospective, observational, noninterventional multicenter study in adults with suspected infection transferred to 4 Spanish hospitals by advanced life-support ambulances from June 1, 2020, through June 30, 2022. We collected demographic, physiological, clinical, and analytical data. Cox regression analysis was used to develop and validate a risk model for 1-year mortality.
Results.
Four hundred ten patients were enrolled (development cohort, 287; validation cohort, 123). Cumulative mortality was 49% overall. Sepsis (infection plus a Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment score of 2 or higher) was diagnosed in 29.2% of survivors vs 56.7% of nonsurvivors. The risk model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89 for 1-year mortality. The following predictors were included in the model: age; institutionalization; age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index; PaCO2; potassium, lactate, urea nitrogen, and creatinine levels; fraction of inspired oxygen; and diagnosed sepsis.
Conclusions.
The model showed excellent ability to predict 1-year mortality based on epidemiological, analytical, and clinical variables, identifying patients at high risk of death soon after their first contact with the health care system.