Acute colchicine poisoning: prediction of in-hospital mortality at hospital admission using a nomogram. A bicenter retrospective cohort study
Azzurra Schicchi1, Alberto L Malovini2, Sebastian Voicu3, Pietro Papa4, Isabelle Malissin3, Nicolas Deye3, Valeria M. Petrolini1, Davide Lonati1, Laurence Labat5, Carlo A. Locatelli1, Bruno Mégarbane3
Affiliation of the authors
1Pavia Poison Control Centre – National Toxicology Information Centre – Clinical and Experimental Lab, Toxicology Unit, Istituti Clinici Scientifici Maugeri IRCCS, Pavia, Italy. 2Laboratory of Informatics and Systems Engineering for Clinical Research, Istituti Clinici Scientifici Maugeri IRCCS, Pavia, Italy. 3Department of Medical and Toxicological Critical Care, Lariboisière Hospital, París, France. 4Laboratory of Analytical Toxicology, Clinical Chemistry Service, IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo Foundation, Pavia, Italy. 5Laboratory of Toxicology, Lariboisière Hospital, Paris, France.
Schicchi A, Malovini AL, Voicu S, Papa P, Malissin I, Deye N, et al. Acute colchicine poisoning: prediction of in-hospital mortality at hospital admission using a nomogram. A bicenter retrospective cohort study. Emergencias. 2026;38:276-84
Summary
Objective.
Acute colchicine poisoning is associated with high mortality. Early identification of high-risk patients is crucial for timely intervention. The prognostic value of plasma colchicine concentration (ColC) has not been previously studied. The objective was to develop a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in acute colchicine poisoning using admission ColC and time elapsed since ingestion.
Methods.
We conducted a bicenter retrospective cohort study (2000–2020). Patients with colchicine poisoning from a French toxicology critical care service and an Italian poison control center were included. Validation datasets included data from the registry itself and previously published cases. Logistic regression models were developed using admission ColC (ng/mL), time from ingestion to ColC measurement (h), and in-hospital mortality as the outcome variable.
Results.
A nomogram was developed using data from 52 patients (training cohort) and validated in 3 independent testing cohorts (n = 25, 13, and 16, respectively). In this retrospective study, the nomogram demonstrated potential for discriminating patients at greater risk.
Conclusions.
An exploratory nomogram for early risk stratification of mortality after colchicine poisoning is presented.
Clinical implementation requires prospective multicenter validation with adequate statistical power.
