Procalcitonin concentration in the emergency department predicts 30-day mortality in COVID-19 better than the lymphocyte count, the neutrophil-tolymphocyte ratio, or the C-reactive protein level

Background. Although many demographic and clinical predictors of mortality have been studied in relation to COVID-19, little has been reported about the prognostic utility of inflammatory biomarkers.

Methods.

Retrospective cohort study. All patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 treated in a hospital emergency department were included consecutively if baseline measurements of the following biomarkers were on record: lymphocyte counts, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio NRL, and C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) levels. We analyzed associations between the biomarkers and all-cause 30-day mortality using Cox regression models and dose–response curves.

Results.

We included 896 patients, 151 (17%) of whom died within 30 days. The median (interquartile range) age was 63 (51-78) years, and 494 (55%) were men. NLR, CRP and PCT levels at ED presentation were higher, while lymphocyte counts were lower, in patients who died compared to those who survived (P < .001). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves revealed the PCT concentration (0.79; 95% CI, 0.75-0.83) to be a better predictor of 30-day mortality than the lymphocyte count (0.70; 95% CI, 0.65-0.74; P < .001), the NLR (0.74; 95% CI, 0.69-0.78; P = .03), or the CRP level (0.72; 95% CI, 0.68-0.76; P < .001). The proposed PCT concentration decision points for use in emergency department case management were 0.06 ng/L (negative) and 0.72 ng/L (positive). These cutoffs helped classify risk in 357 patients (40%). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that the PCT concentration had the strongest association with mortality. Conclusion. PCT concentration in the emergency department predicts all-cause 30-day mortality in patients with COVID-19 better than other inflammatory biomarkers.